Project

Capacity Prediction Model

IndustryData science

Connexxion aimed to operate a more flexible bus schedule in the future. At times too few vehicles are deployed during a busy period, while at other times too many vehicles are deployed with respect to the occupation. Hence they wanted to find out how you can predict the number of passengers in such a way that they won’t deploy too many buses at quiet times, but also won’t deploy too few buses at busier times.

Connexxion aimed to operate a more flexible bus schedule in the future. At times too few vehicles are deployed during a busy period, while at other times too many vehicles are deployed with respect to the occupation. Hence they wanted to find out how you can predict the number of passengers in such a way...
Project
Capacity Prediction Model
Expertise
Industry, Data science
Client
Connexxion
Industry
Public transit
Project type
Geography
Netherlands
Year
2021-current
Website
qlik.com

Our solution

The first design started with the route between den Bosch and Eindhoven Airport. With an eXtreme Gradient Boosting prediction model we looked at the recent history (3 months). In the case of holidays,  for example, we also looked at the 3 months before the start of the holiday. Then we looked at the historical occupation combined with different factors like the weather, events, and flight data. Using this we made a prediction of the expected demand for the vehicles. After this we looked at the capacity of the vehicles to check if there would be any conflicts.

Dashboard design by Connexxion

Results

For the Proof of Concept we made a prediction model which Connexxion displayed in a PowerBI dashboard. Using these predictions, warnings were created with respect to the capacity, such that Connexxion could anticipate conflicts when making their bus schedules.

Travelers don’t have to use another platform or ticket machine to buy a ticket

Kim de Groot

Consultant
@ Lynxx
Nullam finibus in mauris eget malesuada. Pellentesque ipsum ante, elementum non dui sed, vehicula euismod ante. Proin efficitur diam dui, luctus congue mauris rutrum at. Etiam vel velit hendrerit, lobortis ligula vel, posuere magna. Sed aliquet convallis ipsum, nec molestie ante ultricies in. Aliquam eu odio egestas, pharetra ante at, pellentesque nulla. Fusce ac gravida ante, id volutpat neque. Nunc ut leo sed lectus ullamcorper convallis convallis vitae odio. Suspendisse potenti.
Travelers don’t have to use another platform or ticket machine to buy a ticket

Kim de Groot

Consultant
@ Lynxx
Nullam finibus in mauris eget malesuada. Pellentesque ipsum ante, elementum non dui sed, vehicula euismod ante. Proin efficitur diam dui, luctus congue mauris rutrum at. Etiam vel velit hendrerit, lobortis ligula vel, posuere magna. Sed aliquet convallis ipsum, nec molestie ante ultricies in. Aliquam eu odio egestas, pharetra ante at, pellentesque nulla. Fusce ac gravida ante, id volutpat neque. Nunc ut leo sed lectus ullamcorper convallis convallis vitae odio. Suspendisse potenti.